>> From the Library of
Congress in Washington, D.C.
>> Stephanie Marcus:
I'm Stephanie Marcus
from the Science, Technology
and Business Division.
I think it was appropriate that
we had a mini derecho last night
in advance of our talk on water.
Today we're going to not look
into outer space, as we often do
in these lectures, but we're
going to look at our own planet,
and learn how NASA is using
satellite observations
to monitor water and its
sustainability and security.
And we're lucky today
to have Dr. John Bolten
from NASA Goddard.
And I will have to read his
title, because they always have
so many titles at NASA.
But for today he is the
Associate Program Manager
of Water Resources for the
NASA Applied Sciences Program.
Dr. Bolten's background is
in geology, with an emphasis
on hydrology and remote sensing.
So please help me welcome
Dr. Bolten to the Library.
[ Applause ]
>> John Bolten: Thank
you so much.
And thank you everyone
for coming
and spending an hour
with me today.
It's quite an honor to be here.
So today I'm going to be
telling a bit of a story
about Earth science,
and what NASA does.
We have a lot of
activities that are focused
on observing the earth, and
using all these fancy tools
and technology that's
being developed at NASA
for observing the earth.
And my focus today
will be on water,
and how we use observations from
satellite, numerical modeling
for water security and
global water sustainability.
So a quick background.
A lot of people say, "What is
NASA doing with Earth science?"
In fact, we do quite a bit
of Earth-science-focused
research and applications.
In the NASA Applied Sciences
Program the mission statement is
to provide innovative
solutions of applications
of NASA satellites
and numerical modeling
for improving decision making.
And we work with a lot of
institutions around the world
for improving their
decision making,
and also integrating these
solutions into their policies
and their business solutions.
So let's take this.
Does anyone know what this is?
Does that look familiar?
This is a quiz.
It's a current event,
this, in the news a lot.
What this is is actually
a cattle farm.
Okay? And you're seeing
the cattle farm surrounded
by agricultural fields.
So why is this relevant?
Why is this important?
Well, we've heard about
the recent E.coli outbreak.
Now in a cattle farm if
there's too much moisture
in the soil, it breeds disease.
And if there's too
little, it leads to dust.
And that dust can carry
bacteria, including E.coli.
And it can spread to
the surrounding fields.
So this is one quick example
of how Earth science can be
applied, and is contributing
to our better understanding
of our world in recent events.
Here's another recent event.
This is in Cape Town,
South Africa.
So you may have heard of
Cape Town's recent struggle
with water.
So they actually have
something they call "Zero Day."
This is the day that Cape
Town will run out of water.
And this is an unprecedented
event where a town, Cape Town,
I think the population is
roughly half a million people.
And they expect to
run out of water.
Initially it was going
to be in June 2018.
And they've moved it
forward a bit to 2019.
So there's a lot of
focus on Cape Town.
I'll come back to this.
But it's a really good example.
So within water you don't
want to have too little of it,
you don't want to
have too much of it.
Right? And that's what
I'll be talking about.
[ Video Starts ]
[ Background Conversations ]
This is another example
in Ellicott City.
>> Ellicott City right
now in a restaurant --
>> John Bolten: It's
a very quick video.
>> That is flooding.
[ Background Conversations ]
>> Oh, my God!
>> That just happened
within five minutes.
>> Dude!
>> How can you even stop it?
>> Dude, there's a garbage can!
>> [inaudible], you guys.
>> Oh, sorry.
>> Thank you.
[ Background Conversations ]
>> Oh, it's moving that car!
>> What?
>> It's moving that car.
>> The car's going.
>> Ahh! Oh my, God.
Oh, my God.
[ Alarm Sounds ]
[ People Shouting ]
[ Alarm Sounds ]
>> Oh, my God!
[ People Shouting ]
>> Oh, my God!
There's people in the water!
>> Oh, my God!
[ People Shouting and Wailing ]
>> Oh, my God!
Oh, my God!
Oh, my God!
There's people [inaudible]
on their car!
>> Get out of the, oh, my God!
Oh, my God!
>> And there are
people in that vehicle!
>> Oh, my God!
[ People Shouting and Wailing ]
>> Oh, my God!
>> Oh, my God it's rising.
[ Video Ends ]
>> John Bolten: So that was
an attention-grabbing video.
But this happened a mile from
my house in Ellicott City.
In fact, an hour before this
event happens I bought a
Japanese pressing
of Led Zeppelin IV right
in this record store.
And I was actually
talking to the store owner
about what hydrology is.
And I said, "Well, hydrology
is the study of water
and the forecasting of
floods and droughts."
I saw him the next
day, gave him a hug.
And he said, "Hydrology.
I know what that is."
But a lot of people's lives
were uprooted from this event.
Two people lost their lives.
And a lot of people
were seriously injured.
So it really brings it home.
This is only a few miles
away in Ellicott City.
And on that note, roughly 90%
of natural disasters
are related to water.
Okay? And, in fact,
water is now recognized
as the number one threat
multiplier in the world.
So why is NASA interested
in water?
You know? It's because water
is used for agriculture.
It's used for a lot of things.
Agriculture is a
global enterprise.
So the cost of wheat
in the United States is directly
relevant to the productivity
of wheat in South
America or Central Asia.
Okay? So for that reason we need
to set our sights a
little bit broader
than just the United States.
So on that note, this is one
of the most iconic
images ever taken.
Right? So this is
"The Blue Marble."
And it really is blue.
Everything you see here
that's blue or white is water.
Right? And if you go down
through the numbers here,
and you think, "Well, let's
go back to junior high school.
Let's go back to
the water cycle."
Right? It's pretty simple.
Water falls from
clouds, precipitates.
Some of it is stored in snow,
and some of it's
stored in glaciers.
Some of it runs down.
It's stored in surface
water and in reservoirs
and lakes and in streams.
Some of it meets groundwater.
It makes its way
back to the oceans.
And, eventually,
evaporates up to clouds.
Right? Pretty simple.
So our challenge here is to,
as accurately as possible,
characterize, understand
and predict each component
of this water cycle.
Right? And from that we'll have
a better idea of how to assess
and mitigate extreme
events like these floods
and drought events
that are occurring.
So, you know, we are
in "The Blue Marble."
Right? Because over 70% of the
planet is covered by water.
Right? However, only
a tiny portion,
about 2.5% is fresh water.
So it's a very small fraction.
In fact, of that 2.5% over
half of it is in glaciers.
There's only a small
portion that is fresh water
that is available to us through
surface water or ground water.
Okay, and if you look
at that, okay, well,
there's lots of water.
There's a little bit left.
Where is that water going?
Most of its used
for agriculture.
Right? And, so, this
is where, you know,
with the Applied Sciences
Program at NASA we're looking
at innovative solutions
of monitoring water use.
You can actually
measure the amount
of water that's being applied
and lost through plants.
So we can encourage people
to move from flood irrigation
to drip irrigation, more
efficient uses of water.
So I have a five-year-old
daughter.
Her name's Lily [assumed
spelling].
Right? By the time she's my age
there'll be roughly nine billion
people on the planet.
When I was born there
was nearly four billion.
Okay? That's a pretty extreme
trend here we're seeing.
So the challenge is
how do we prepare
for this increased
population globally.
What is their relationship
with water going to be?
Is there enough water
to go around?
I'll tell you right now
there is enough water.
But if we look at
the distribution
of the global population
density, we see some areas
where there's a high population.
Right? And if we look at
a map of water stress,
so simply the ratio
of water withdrawal
to water availability, we
see in these similar areas,
the same areas we're
seeing with high population,
there's high-water stress.
So, in fact, a lot of the areas
that have water insecurity
and food insecurity are these
areas with high population
and future population
increases that are projected.
So our challenge here is to find
out how we can keep
what we have,
properly manage the
water that is available.
Now a similar trend that we
see here, this is Moore's Law.
Okay? And it, essentially, says
that every two years the number
of transistors in a
circuit will double.
Right? So my iPhone here,
if you look at this, oh,
this was another quiz.
Does anyone know what this is?
>> The ENIAC?
>> The ENIAC computer.
Right. So this is in 1946.
This is considered the
first quote/unquote
"general-purpose computer."
Right? So my iPhone here
is 230 million times faster
than the ENIAC computer.
And that's just 70 years ago.
So technology is advancing,
population increase
is also advancing.
So we have all kinds
of fancy tools and ways
to measure different parts
of the global water cycle.
Right? We can go out and
measure the amount of rainfall.
Right? It's not rocket science.
Okay? We can also
look at snow depth.
This definitely isn't
rocket science.
They literally just
take a meter stick,
and measure the amount of snow.
But, in fact, if you look at,
let's see, San Joaquin Valley
in California, most of their
water is sourced by snowpack.
Okay? So if they're going to
prepare for the amount of water
in the next season, they go
out, they get a bunch of people
where they go out and
use these meter sticks,
and they measure the
amount of snowpack.
Okay? And from that they
derive a Snow Water Equivalent,
the amount of water
that's held in that.
And from that they can determine
how much water will be available
next season.
Okay. You can also look at
how much water is evaporating
from the land surface
and from plants
through evapotranspiration.
Okay? These are different
sensors of doing this.
You can also use something
called a "ThetaProbe," which,
essentially, measures
the electronic resistance
of the soil.
So the amount of water
in the soil is measured
by this instrument.
It gives you the
amount of soil moisture.
You can also look at river flow.
Okay? All these gauge stations,
all these in situ
datasets are great.
And you can also
look at groundwater.
You can go out somewhere,
and you dig a well,
and you have an idea of
how much water there is.
Now the problem with this is
that ground stations
are expensive,
and they are difficult
to maintain.
And if you look at
just the distribution
in the United States, this
is groundwater, right,
Groundwater Climate
Response Network.
There's not many now.
There's not many
observations here.
If you look globally, this is
the Global Telecommunication
System, you can see
there's a lot of areas
without a yellow dot on it.
And, so, the message here is
that ground data is expensive,
it's difficult to maintain.
And especially when
you're concerned
about transboundary aquifers and
crossing political boundaries,
it's very difficult
to share data.
You know, you can have my
data, but you can't have it.
I can have it, but I'm not
going to give it to this guy.
It's a huge issue.
But when you're dealing with a
watershed, when you're dealing
with a resource that's
common to everyone,
you need this common sharing
of water and water data.
So going back also to 1946,
this is October 26, 1946.
This is the first image ever
taken of the planet Earth.
Some scientists launched
a Delta II rocket
from the White Sands Air
Force Base in California.
And they were lucky
enough to get this picture.
And initially they were all
concerned about the clouds.
They're like, "Oh,
these clouds are,
you know, messing up our view."
But, in fact, we know now
that's really what we're after.
So if we go back
again to junior high,
the electromagnetic spectrum.
Right? So our eyes
capture the ambient light.
We see colors.
These colors, in fact, are
only a very small fraction
of the total electromagnetic
spectrum.
Right? We're only
seeing a little bit.
So all this energy's
down from the sun.
Some of it's reflected
through visible light.
Some of it is reflected
through x-rays
and ultraviolet microwaves
and radio waves.
So we can use these other parts
of the electromagnetic spectrum
to assess parts of the
global water cycle.
A tree looks very different
in infrared or near frared
than it does in visible light.
In fact, it tells us
different information
than the visible light.
So we get beautiful pictures
like this, but we're also able
to look at not only is the
tree green, is it yellow,
but is it healthy, is its
senescing, is it growing,
how much water is it using.
So we can also use
different parts
of the electromagnetic
spectrum, like microwaves,
which are correlated with the
amount of moisture in soil.
So we're combining all these
different technologies trying
to tell that story of
the water landscape
at that global water
cycle, different components,
each different component,
how can we measure
and predict each part.
So if you fast forward to 2018,
NASA has a whole constellation
of satellites that utilize
different components
of the electromagnetic
spectrum for focusing
and monitoring different
components of the water cycle.
And we're also collaborating
with the International
Space Station.
We have instruments
there that stay on for
about one to three years.
And what's unique about the
ISS is it has a slightly
unique orbit.
So it captures things
that aren't captured
by other satellites.
So the whole idea is, let's
see, as frequently as possible
and as accurately as possible,
monitor different parts
of that water cycle.
So I'm going to show
a few examples
of what we're seeing from space.
This is one of NASA's recently
launched satellites called the
"Global Precipitation
Measurement Mission," GPM.
So instead of just having a
few gauges all over, you know,
we can now have every 30
minutes on the planet,
we have an estimate
of precipitation.
Right? Not just over land,
but over sea as well.
And this is extremely powerful
if your business is hydrology,
okay, and figuring out where
the water is and where it isn't.
Another satellite that is
widely used is "MODIS."
It's the Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer.
And what's really neat about
this is you see this sort
of pulsing, this
breathing of the planet.
And you see it growing and
senescing of vegetation.
Right? And this is
sped up, obviously,
but through MODIS we get
frequent observations
of vegetation health.
And this is one of the
most widely used satellites
that NASA has.
A couple missions that
are up and coming,
about to be launched,
are exciting.
One of them is called "ICESat."
And this is using Lidar,
or laser altimetry.
And think about this.
From space, from several
hundred kilometers up,
you can detect the height
of water or a glacier
with an accuracy of centimeters.
Okay? This is a highly
anticipated mission,
as well as the Surface
Water Ocean Topography,
or SWOT, Mission.
This uses a slightly
different technology.
It's a synthetic aperture
radar interferometric system.
I was nervous about
saying that, but I did it.
But the idea here is to measure
the topography of the ocean,
of the ocean surface and also
the rivers and reservoirs.
So I just find it pretty
amazing to think from hundreds
of kilometers up you're able to
tell the height of a reservoir
or lake, or even a river, within
the accuracy of centimeters.
That's pretty wild.
One of my favorite missions
I talk about is "GRACE."
It's stands for the Gravity
Recovery and Climate Experiment.
And there's a follow-on
mission to be launched here
in about the next month, a
GRACE II, or a GRACE follow-on.
But what makes GRACE unique?
It's not a satellite
looking down at the earth.
In fact, it's two
satellites flying in tandem
that are looking at each other.
They're not looking down.
So they're looking
at each other.
Right? They're looking
at each other,
and they're measuring
this horizontal distance
within the accuracy
of one red blood cell,
if you can believe that.
Right? So if there's a mountain
or a large landmass here,
that first satellite will be
pulled forward just slightly.
And this horizontal
distance will change.
Okay? And they keep on doing
that, they go around the planet,
go around and go around.
And what they're doing
is they're mapping the
gravitational pull of the earth,
of the different land masses.
And a change from one month
to the next is a
gravitational anomaly.
Now mountains really
don't move that quickly.
So if you see a large anomaly,
you can infer a movement
of water, because
water has mass.
And, so, in fact, what
you're seeing here,
these different colors
are the terrestrial water
storage anomalies.
And this was really a game
changer for hydrology,
because we're always trying
to solve the water budget for
"our residual is
always groundwater."
You know, what's
the Delta storage?
What's the change in storage?
Well, now we have a
direct observation
of that change in storage.
And it's a truly novel satellite
mission launched by NASA.
Now this is really cool.
First of all, I think that Bob
Ross would probably be super
jealous of the happy
clouds here.
Because what you see, all this
is is two satellite observations
laid over each other.
So you have a satellite-based
soil moisture observation shown
here in blue and orange.
These are soil moisture
anomalies.
And the yellow and red
are GPM precipitation.
Right? It kind of makes sense.
Where it rains the
soil gets wet.
Right? But it's really useful
for helping convey this concept
of precipitation memory.
Where is it raining
and where is it not?
Where is the water
holding water,
or where is the soil holding
water, where is it not?
And it's become a pretty
cool educational tool.
But it also is really useful
for just showing the utility
of combining multiple
datasets from satellite,
and helping tell this story
of the global water
cycle more completely.
So back to the water cycle.
All right.
So we have all these
different observations.
We're sensing precipitation.
We can detect rivers and
reservoirs, and all this stuff.
Okay? But what do
you do with it?
Well, where the rubber
meets the road really is
through numerical modeling
and land surface modeling.
And all that is is an
estimation of reality.
Right? It's based on physical
equations that are, hopefully,
physically consistent.
You're trying to mimic
what you see in nature.
You're trying to mimic if a
certain temperature and pressure
in this cloud, when will
it precipitate water.
Right? It kind of makes sense.
A lot of these equations have
been derived in laboratories.
And then they're applied
to real-world applications
like we see here.
So we have all kinds
of different equations,
numerical models that we
integrate these observations
of satellite, we take
these observations
of in situ observations and
gauge data, and we just try
to tell that story more
completely in a way
that is physically consistent
and makes sense and
that we can use.
And when you understand
what's happening now,
you have a better idea of
what's going to happen tomorrow.
And that's what it
all boils down to.
So back to "The Blue Marble."
Where are we?
So it's something that I
think most people are familiar
with is the drought
that occurred
in California a couple
years ago.
So if you just look
at the terrestrial water
storage changes in California
from the GRACE satellite,
and you can see here,
what we're seeing, there's
a little red dot that goes.
And you can see this trend,
a significant decrease
in terrestrial water storage.
And, again, it repeats.
And this made a lot of headlines
in the news, because, for one,
it's very easy to
see, "Okay red is bad.
Blue is good."
You know, California,
it's going down.
But what it did is
help tell part
of that water landscape
story for California.
Now if we go back to Cape Town,
right, so let's say, "Oh, yeah,
Cape Town, it says they're
going to run out of water.
They're experiencing a drought."
Okay. Well, what does that mean?
How can water managers
there prepare?
What are they going to do?
Is it really a drought?
And how extensive will it be?
And how long will it last?
You know? What happens?
So the first thing they do is
you look at the climatology,
which is, essentially, just a
long-term record of weather.
And, you know, every area
has this unique climatology.
So this is what's happened in
the past, and what is it going
to look like today or
tomorrow or next year.
So we use numerical modeling
to look at seasonal forecasts.
Okay? And you say, "Okay, well,
what may it look like in May
to July of 2018, all the way
up to September, October 2018?"
It's very similar.
In fact, it's the same
thing you see when you turn
on the Weather Channel.
Right? Those are
short-term forecasts.
Well, there's long-term
forecasts as well,
but they're all based
on the same thing.
You need accurate observations
to initialize those models.
And you're providing
estimates, in this case,
of a future climatology, or
future forecasts of the weather.
So what does soil moisture
look like in Cape Town?
And how is that related
to the drought?
Well, the whole idea is
having a long-term record,
have a historical perspective
of all of these variables
of the global water cycle.
So we see here, if we look at
an anomaly of soil moisture,
we can look at this year's
soil moisture compared
to last year's.
It's very straightforward,
very simple for that point.
But then if you isolate
different areas, in this case,
of southern Africa that are
used for agriculture, well,
soil moisture is a
leading indicator
of agriculture, of drought.
Right? So we say that
the soil moisture now,
the soil moisture anomaly we
have now is a leading indicator
of vegetation next
month or next week.
So we use this as a way
of forecasting future
agricultural drought.
In fact, the definition
of agricultural drought is
the deficit of soil moisture.
Soil moisture's dear
to my heart.
I've been studying it for years.
And it's turned out to be one
of the most important variables
in hydrology, because
it's a boundary condition
between the land surface
and the atmosphere.
Just like your body, when you
get hot, your body sweats.
Right? And that evaporative
cooling cools your body down.
The same thing happens
on the land surface.
So the amount of moisture
in just the top one
to five centimeters of
soil has a direct influence
on that local weather
and global climate.
And it's really used for
initializing climate models.
So this image shows the
African Drought Monitor.
This is by the Climate
Analytics Group from Princeton.
And you see this, and
they've taken these data,
and they derived the Soil
Moisture Ground Index.
And you just see from one
change, this is April 22,
2018 to April 29, 2018.
And the whole idea is putting
this in a story that makes sense
that is relevant to
the previous day's
and future forecast
for that area.
So I'm focusing on Cape
Town for a couple reasons.
One is because it's in the news.
And two is that we're
collaborating
with several other agencies to
try to assess and help the city
of Cape Town, and the
country of South Africa,
for assessing their
current drought conditions.
And, so, we were working
with the Department of State.
And we had a bunch of people
come in, and say, "Well,
what's happening right now?"
Well, if we look at the
reservoirs, you know,
thankfully, we have a
relatively long-term record
of reservoir storage.
So these are the six main
reservoirs that feed Cape Town.
And you don't need to be a
hydrologist, you don't need
to be someone from NASA to look
at this graph, and say, "Hm.
I see a trend.
These are decreasing."
Okay? Well, it's not just that.
It's about how much
water's being used, right,
and how much you expect to have.
You can also look at
stream flow within the area.
But what if there
aren't gauges there?
What if there's a
lack of, you know,
it's a poorly (inaudible)
network of stream gauge data?
Well, we can model
that stream flow.
And, so, that's what
we're showing here.
We have several different
models.
And we're looking at our
modeled stream flow compared
to our observed stream flow.
And what does groundwater
look like?
So we're using GRACE.
So this is in the Orange
River Basin in that same area.
So you have historical record
of terrestrial water storage,
and evapotranspiration as well.
So my point here is we're going
through all the different
components of that water cycle
that I showed earlier, and
saying, "Well, you know what?
From MODIS and numerical
modeling, and other things,
we're able to look, in this
case, at evapotranspiration.
And what does the
spatial distribution
of evapotranspiration
look like in that area?
You boil this all
down, and what you want
to get is a metric
of water stress.
You know, we're not interested
in just pretty pictures.
We want to know what's it look
like, what's really happening.
Okay? But where it
really matters, okay,
you take all this data and all
these fancy pictures and stuff,
and this is a busy
slide on purpose.
Okay? What this is
this is moving
from data to decision making.
Okay? And this is a
dashboard that's been provided
to the city of Cape Town.
And they have a percent
of dam storage that's
currently available,
the future yield changes,
and they have a lot
of historical perspective
put in and tied
to the current conditions
of Cape Town, all relating
to reservoir storage,
current drought conditions,
current precipitation and
future forecasts of that water.
And that is what it's all about.
Now if we go back to flooding,
Ellicott City was a
pretty scary video.
Right? Well, the
Applied Sciences Program
of NASA has been partnering
with Thailand and groups
in the Lower Mekong River Basin.
So we've been working with
the Mekong River Commission
and the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center,
working with them, because in
the Lower Mekong River Basin
there's nearly 60 million
people who live there,
and their livelihoods
depend on the Mekong River.
That's their main
protein source.
But it's also one of the
most heavily dammed areas
in the world.
And it's affecting
a lot of things.
And it's also an area
that is extremely prone
to massive flooding.
So we've developed a system for
assessing near real-time mapping
of flooded areas, right,
combined with socioeconomic
data.
Okay? So you can say, "Hey,
it flooded there
yesterday I can see,
because the MODIS data looks
a little bit different.
This vegetation is covered."
Okay. That's great.
But in addition to just where
your boots are going to get wet,
what's really useful is saying,
"Well, this is the percent
of the population
that's affected.
These are the acres of rice
that have been inundated.
These are the number of
schools and hospitals
that have been flooded
by the event
that happened 12 hours ago."
That's moving from data
to decision making.
So what we've come up
with, and this is a paper
that was just published two
weeks ago, we've tied this
with a damage assessment
system, where, essentially,
levels of flooding are tied
to a monetary value of damage.
And, so, we can tie
this all in together.
We can come up with a rapid
assessment of dollars of damage.
And from that you can allocate
resources, you can focus areas
of interest for mitigating
flood damage and flood risks.
So we're working
with our friends here
from the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center.
We're all huddling around.
This image was not
staged at all.
But we're huddling around
and we're building a system.
And the idea is that we're
taking this technology that's
constantly developing,
and we're working
to develop something novel.
And this is a little video of
something that we're developing
for the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center,
so that they can take this
data, and then they can use it
to tease out information
and improve management of,
in this case, the Flood
Management Mitigation Program.
This was sent to me this
morning at 6 a.m. from Bangkok.
So for me it's really exciting,
because we're, you know,
taking all the great
innovative data and cool things,
and working towards
capacity building,
working towards understanding
our world better, and managing
that water in a more
efficient way.
So we have lots of satellites.
We have lots of data.
I had some crazy stats about
how fast computers are now.
Well, this graph
is also following
that same population
trend graph.
But what you see, actually it
shows the archive volume just
from NASA alone of data stored.
And on your y axis here,
this is petabytes of data.
So we are inundated with data.
There's tons and tons
and tons of data.
And this is only
going to increase.
Right? And for that reason
we're embracing high-performance
computing and cloud computing,
especially if you're interested
in providing solutions
for areas of the world
that are water insecure
and food insecure.
A lot of times these are
the areas of the world
that also lack high-computing
capabilities.
They don't have giant
Linux servers,
you know, readily available.
Or they don't have
the time or technology
for storing all this data.
So by moving towards cloud
computing we can develop
solutions here that is
widely usable by people,
and it's easily accessible.
So this is a new trend
on the horizon here.
So I've given you a
very quick overview
of some water resources
applications and things.
But I encourage everyone
to check
out the NASA Applied
Sciences Program.
It's a wonderful program.
We have many, many,
many exciting things
that I didn't get a
chance to discuss today.
So I encourage you to
go to the website here.
We have examples of different
projects, and an entire list
of all our partners and end
users that we are working
with to develop these
innovative solutions.
And my last slide,
this is my daughter.
And this is water.
She's in the shower.
So I just want to leave you
with, like, our task here is
to really embrace
technology, understand science.
We see that just within the last
70 years we've had a dramatic
increase in our computing
capability.
We've had a dramatic increase
in the number of satellites,
or ways to view the
planet Earth from space.
And now we have the ability
to integrate all these data
and all these new technologies,
and provide them to people
for improved capacity building,
and improved understanding
of our world.
And I'm always thinking,
"What, you know,
what kind of world am I going
to leave for my daughter?
What is her relationship
with water going to be?
Will it be better or worse?"
Well, she's smiling
right now, so I'm happy.
Thank you so much.
[ Applause ]
>> Stephanie Marcus: Thank you.
Actually, you said you like to
talk when you've got more time,
but, hopefully, we'll
have a lot of questions.
And you can always fill them
out with more information.
>> John Bolten: Sure.
>> Stephanie Marcus: We'd like
you to repeat the questions
so that everyone can hear it.
And go right ahead.
>> John Bolten: Yes, sir?
>> Are there any
plans to deploy any
of this water technology towards
other planets in our search
for water on Mars
and other places?
>> John Bolten: So, yeah, the
question is do we apply some
of these technologies
for other planets.
Well, a lot of these
technologies have developed
in parallel with, it's
the same technology.
In fact, the GRACE satellite
that I showed that actually came
from I believe it
was a lunar mission.
And, so, the answer
is, "Yes, there's,
I'm sure you're familiar with
the Mars and the Mars Rover."
I actually share a
coffeepot with these guys.
And they're on Martian time,
because they have to
babysit the Rover.
But that's using
similar technology.
So the answer is yes.
But it's more difficult to
get some of these in space.
The Soil Moisture
Mission that I showed,
the Soil Moisture
Active Passive Mission,
you really need a
passive instrument,
or a passive aperture, or radar,
or sorry, antenna in space.
And it's really difficult to get
something that's, in this case,
in the microwave in
the L Band frequency.
So the wavelength is pretty
long, about 21 centimeters.
So to get something in
space that can capture
that relatively weak signal,
they had to develop this
very novel dish system
that would fold up
into a rocket.
And then it launched into
space, and then it folded
out into this beautiful
array of antennae.
And that was the
first of its kind.
And that was just
launched in 2015.
And the future looks bright.
Yeah. Yes?
>> Do you have a slide
that talks about how much
of our fresh water
[inaudible] declining glacier?
So is that affecting our
ability to have fresh water?
>> John Bolten: Yes.
So the question is
is the decline
in glaciers affecting
our fresh water.
So this is an entire
area of research
that is widely focused
on right now.
I mentioned the ICESat Mission.
And one of its purposes
is measuring glaciers,
the change in glaciers, and the
change in ice storage of water.
And I also mentioned Cape Town.
And it's really not
a joke anymore,
but they've actually estimated
it would cost a $130 million
to tow a glacier to
the city of Cape Town
to provide fresh water.
And this is seriously
being considered right now.
But as far as climate change,
and understanding global
climate, and relating
that to glaciers, what
we're seeing is the
declining glaciers.
It's a significant
part of that equation
of the global water cycle.
So the answer is yes.
And I could talk about
this all afternoon.
But it has a major impact
on ocean circulation
and resulting climate.
So there's all these
future, I showed a few
of the climate forecasts,
where there's a big school
these forecast systems
that incorporate global
ocean circulation,
and also incorporate
future climate scenarios,
where they have a scenario
analysis of withdrawing glaciers
and melting of that water,
and the additional fresh water
into that system,
and what will happen.
Yes?
>> [inaudible] going forward,
are you making long-range
forecasts
about future sustainability
and what the [inaudible] options
might be for addressing them?
>> John Bolten: Good question.
The question is looking
at future sustainability
and future implications
of water sustainability.
And the answer is yes.
And what I showed here
was really just one part
of that equation.
Right?
I showed the earth observations.
Another part is management
of water, political will,
which is a huge component, and
management of those resources.
And that's where it takes
more than just someone looking
at satellite observations
or numerical modeling
saying, "Okay.
This is what might happen,"
but also a sharing
of those resources.
If I can encourage a group
of people to move away
from flood-based irrigation
towards drip irrigation,
or if I can encourage
them to say, "Well, look,
this is the impact that
building 13 dams on this river
in the next ten years will
have on the fisheries industry,
will have on the local
agriculture industry."
And that's where we take
these scenarios we have and,
hopefully, we can work with
governments and, hopefully,
inform these future decisions.
So the answer is yes.
And, you know, not everything
can be solved by a satellite.
A lot of it comes down to
working closely with people
in that country, because,
let's see, every disaster
and every water need is unique.
And every solution must
be unique to meet that.
And that's what's really cool.
It's kind of job security for us
and the Applied Sciences
Program, because there's
so much need for
understanding water.
If you have these scary
statistics, and say, yes,
the number one threat multiplier
in the world, there are, well,
I'm not going to go into it,
but there's a lot of examples
of where water has led
to a lack of water,
or too much water has led to
uprisings, and not good things.
Thanks for the question.
Yes? In the back, in the back.
>> All right.
This is a related question,
but maybe a little bit more
on the technology end.
I apologize I came in a little
bit [inaudible] touched on this
in the beginning [inaudible].
But it seems to me that when
you're dealing with satellites
and sensing of what's
happening with water,
you're also wrestling
with really three forces
that are hard to wrestle
with [inaudible] a lot
of smart [inaudible]
and probably data isn't
available through satellite.
One is just natural
variability [inaudible].
Second [inaudible] talked about
a fair amount in climate change.
So there's a long wiggle as well
as a short wiggle going
[inaudible] wiggle [inaudible]
the long-term trend.
But the third is also
the demand component.
What's happening with
human demand for water--
>> John Bolten: Right.
>> Which is much
harder to get at.
And I'm just curious as to
how you wrestle with that,
and integrate that
into, for example,
a consideration of drought.
Drought is, in some
ways, a natural event,
but it also is affected by the
demands the farmers are making
on the soil, for example,
on irrigation [inaudible]
population, generally.
For example, in Cape Town during
this whole crisis Cape Town's
population has continued
to grow by tens
of thousands of [inaudible].
More and more people
are [inaudible] water.
[inaudible] research question
I've been [inaudible] Lake Chad
is disappearing [inaudible]
something similar
to the Aral Sea.
Some people say that there's
climate change at work.
And other people point
out that the number
of farmers withdrawing water
from Lake Chad has been
increasing dramatically
as the population growth is
extremely rapid in that area.
And I'm just wondering
do you integrate some
of your satellite measurements
with demographic analyses
and socioeconomic analyses
that actually show [inaudible]
increasing demand, and how much
of the big picture is that.
>> John Bolten: Excellent
question.
If I can boil it
down, essentially,
that how do you capture
demand for water,
and how do you capture local
management and local demand
into these strategies.
And, well, using Lake Chad as
an example, I was planning to go
over there and dig
a number of wells
with the local universities,
but Boko Haram came in,
and I wasn't allowed to go.
But it's difficult to learn
more than you can by working
with locals, because they
have their local practices,
and they have their
local demands.
Right? In regard to the climate
change question and all this,
it all boils down
to understanding
and capturing the processes, in
this case, of the water cycle
and the energy cycle
and the carbon cycle,
because they're all
interrelated.
Right? And moving from
the very different thing
between beliefs and knowledge.
Okay? Well, I know something,
because I observed it.
I know something, because I've
observed it and I predicted it,
and I've 've seen it again.
And if you don't
believe in something,
that's something
entirely different.
So it all comes down to
repeating these observations,
having a historical long-term
record of observations.
In this case, as you mentioned,
there's different scenarios
or different causes and
components of climate change,
and how it will be realized.
But something that
we are observing is
that it'll be realized
mostly in the water cycle.
Okay? And that's being seen.
It's been seen for
years and years.
So as far as integrating these
main local management practices,
that is kind of in this
field of applied sciences
and water management, it's one
of the most difficult things
to work and take in the local
approaches to, in this case,
agriculture, right, if
you're looking at Lake Chad,
or if you're looking
at Cape Town.
And to find a solution that if I
come and say, "Oh, you guys need
to change everything
you're doing.
We know everything."
That's not going to work.
It definitely will not work.
But if you try to embrace a
bit of what they're doing,
and try to integrate
in a meaningful way,
so we can compare apples
to apples, saying, "Okay.
Well, the soil moisture
that you're seeing here is
directly related to the amount
of crop yield you will have
in two months or three months.
And we can use this as a way of
forecasting that future yield."
That's very powerful.
And it's very powerful for
helping, in this case, a country
or a region change their
management practices in regards
to agricultural productivity.
Yes, sir?
[ Inaudible Speaker ]
Oh, I'm sorry.
Yes? Sorry.
She was up first.
[ Inaudible Speaker ]
>> John Bolten: So the question
is are there other areas
that are experiencing the
same conditions as Cape Town.
Yes, absolutely.
In the United States alone,
let's take the United States,
in 2017 there was a
widespread drought
in the northern United States,
in 2012 there was a widespread
drought in the United States
that led to over a $50
billion loss in revenue just
from agriculture alone.
There are a number of examples
of increased water stress,
and an increased
demand on that water.
If we go back to the
global population increase,
and what that really means.
If you look at, you
know, a lot of the area
of increase was in
India and Asia.
Right? That increase
in population,
and also the increase
in technologies,
leading to an increase
in middle class.
Middle class are consumers.
We consume more.
And we eat better food.
We eat more meat.
That meat requires
more water to produce.
All these things were taken into
the calculation of water demand.
It's not just how much water
I use to brush my teeth
in the morning, or how
much I drink every day.
What also needs to be
considered is the amount of food
that I consume, the amount
of energy that is being,
or water that's being
used for hydro production,
and water seized in other ways
of industry and agriculture,
as we saw is the
number one use of water.
Yes, sir?
>> Could you say something
about desalination?
>> John Bolten: Desalination.
So the question is desalination.
So desalinization is the
removing of salt from water.
Right? And even though 70% of
the planet is covered by water,
most of it's salt water.
Desalinization, a few
issues with desalinization,
I think it's a great
area of research,
but it is extremely inefficient.
It takes a lot of energy
to remove salt from water.
If you look at the
city of Dubai,
almost all of their water is
sourced by desalinization.
So I heard a stat, don't quote
me on it, even though I'm
on video and at the
Library of Congress,
but I heard that without
desalinization they would run
out of water within
roughly a week's time.
But I did see a presentation
just last week
about the whole slew of new
desalinization approaches.
And something that they're
moving towards is sort
of a sustainability approach
of desalinization based
on solar panels in other
ways where you can overcome
that relatively expensive
part of desalinization.
But it seems like it would be
a, you know, hit the nail right
on the head as far as a way
for finding fresh water.
I think you had one?
>> Well, I was just wondering
about other space agencies
or countries in the
developed world
and coordinating with them.
They must have their
own fleet of satellites
who do the same thing,
or do they just feed
off your [inaudible]?
>> John Bolten: No, no, no, no.
So the question is about other
agencies and other countries
that we're working with.
So NASA partners
with all of them.
And we're developing a sensor
called "NICER," that's developed
by the Indian Space Agency.
We're working with a lot
of the European Space
Agency satellites.
There's sentinel satellites
that complement a lot
of the observations
that I showed today.
We're working with JAXA,
the Japanese Space Agency.
All of them.
And this is what's
really exciting,
because you're partnering with
all these different countries
and different agencies, and
they have their own approaches
and unique solutions to
driving a lot of these.
And some of these
we partner with them
in the development
of these satellites.
And it's a really good excuse
for running around the world,
and working with
incredibly smart people.
Yes, ma'am?
>> You've been talking
about government agencies
and many different countries.
What about the international
corporations as drilling water
from the earth and sell it.
I mean, I drink bottled water,
so I'm one of the sinners.
But do they use the information
that you are developing,
these international
corporations, which are sort
of countries of their own
[inaudible] in many ways--
>> John Bolten: Sure.
>> [inaudible] for
information [inaudible]?
>> John Bolten: Yes.
So the question is of
international corporations
and how they apply the
data that I showed today.
And the answer is yes.
And international organizations,
if you mean a for-profit
institution,
if you take Coca-Cola,
for example,--
>> Yeah.
>> John Bolten: Most of their
business is based on water.
Right? And, in fact,
we are partnering
with Coca-Cola in
a number of ways.
I forgot to mention, I should
have said this at the beginning,
but every single piece of data
that I showed today is
in the public domain.
Everything NASA does
is free for use.
And that's what makes
us a bit different.
And we encourage
organizations to embrace this.
If you understand, in this
case, where the water isn't
and where the water is,
hopefully, that will be managed
in a way that's for
the greater good.
But I have no idea of the
number of users of NASA data,
or how that's being applied.
But I do know that we
work with organizations
such as the United Nations.
We have a couple
projects I didn't show
that are actually endorsed
by the G20 Initiative
that are focused on
providing global pictures of,
in this case it's the GEOGLAM
Project, which is focused
on water and its relationship
to global agricultural yield.
We're partnering with
USGS and other agencies
for a project called
"FuseNet", which is focused
on the food insecure
areas of the world.
Okay. But we're also
enabling people
like these international
agencies
to have their own solutions
for water management.
And that's something
that NASA is proud of,
this open data policy.
[ Inaudible Speaker ]
>> John Bolten: Well, they
find water and use water
to develop their product.
>> [inaudible] you say
you have a partnership.
I'm just wondering--
>> John Bolten: Yes.
>> [inaudible] your
question [inaudible].
>> John Bolten: Oh, sorry.
So the Coca-Cola is
interested in looking
at the forecasting of water.
I mean, exactly what
we're looking at here.
So they have bottling plants.
They have areas where
they're collecting water
and using water.
So how much water is available,
how much water will be
available tomorrow or next year.
>> So you're directly working
with [inaudible] that happen.
>> John Bolten: They
are one of our end users
for the Applied Sciences
Program, yes.
Yes, ma'am?
>> Drone use for the
[inaudible] is very active now.
And [inaudible] any
collaboration
to finetuning the
information is, you know,
something I support [inaudible].
>> John Bolten: Ah.
That's a good question.
So the question is about drones
or unmanned aerial vehicles.
So this is a really
exciting field.
And the answer is yes.
So NASA, in fact, has a lot
of drone technology as well,
because as the technology
advances the sensors get
smaller, things get lighter,
you have more storage,
and you can throw something on a
tiny little helicopter or plane.
And we also have something,
I forgot to mention as well,
called "CubeSats,"
which is a cool word
for just small satellite.
So you have a satellite about
as big as this water pitcher
that you can throw in space,
and for a fraction of the price
of a traditional
satellite mission.
And NASA is famous for having
some wonderful, amazing,
very impressive and
long-lasting satellite missions.
But I think something on
the rise in here is the UAVs
and the CubeSat technology.
Because you can throw a swarm of
CubeSats in space for a fraction
of price, and this whole
lifecycle of concept to launch,
which is relatively long when
you think of a long satellite
or a large satellite mission,
it's a little bit smaller
when you have CubeSats and UAVs.
But I've seen a lot of
UAVs used particularly
in agricultural applications
for precision AG.
You can throw a thermal
sensor on a drone,
and other sensors now,
and it's really neat.
And just in the past ten or
15 years, because of the speed
of computing and how
cheap data storage is,
you're able to do that.
So it's a really
exciting innovation.
Yes, sir?
>> So have we been collecting
data of this type long enough
to [inaudible] that make
[inaudible] predictions?
>> John Bolten: Have
we been able to?
>> Right. Because I don't
know how long this kind
of detailed data has
been actually collected.
>> John Bolten: Okay.
So I guess the question is how
long have we been collecting
data for these to put it in
a historical perspective.
So--
[ Inaudible Speaker ]
Right? And I can give you
sort of a weird answer.
But each one of these, let's
say, if we take soil moisture,
so I deal with soil
moisture a lot.
And if I have one or two
years of soil moisture,
I'm not really going to be able
to derive a reliable
anomaly from that.
Okay? But if I have ten
years, maybe I will.
The idea with soil
moisture related
to agriculture is you want to
see several growing seasons.
And you want to capture extremes
in those growing seasons,
and extremes in that hydrology.
If you're looking at flooding,
you want to see a year
that was at an extreme.
You would want to see
a year that was also
at a very low extreme,
so you can capture those.
And when you do that,
you have a better sense.
The lifespan of NASA satellite
missions are all unique.
But I think to be conservative
they throw them up there
to be roughly three
to five years.
But many satellites have
lasted longer than ten.
I'm not on a soapbox, but
if I was, the importance
of having concurrent
observations,
and keeping this
consistent record.
That's why in the next
few weeks we're going
to have a GRACE follow-on
mission,
because the GRACE satellite,
or the GRACE Mission just died.
You know, it's still
floating around there.
But it stopped sending data.
But if we miss a few months of
data, it's really a huge loss
if you're trying to, you know,
paint this historical
perspective.
If you're looking at the state
of California, okay, well,
I know what happened
from 2010 to 2015.
But if there's a couple-year
gap there, that's going
to be a really big loss
for that dataset alone.
And that's something
that I'm always trying
to remind people of,
this important stuff.
You need to plan now
for the next ten years.
And we need to start planning
for throwing a mission
up that can contribute and
capture the same observations,
so that we have that that
will improve the utility
of that data record.
Thanks for the question.
>> Stephanie Marcus: Any
others before we end?
[ Inaudible Speaker ]
>> John Bolten: Sure.
>> So are you working with
an interagency working group
that takes your data and tries
to develop applications
[inaudible]?
>> John Bolten: Yes.
The question is are we working
with an interagency
working group.
In fact, we work with the USAID.
We work with the World Bank.
We work with the United Nations.
There's a separate
subgroup of the Department
of State called the "Interagency
Water Working Group" that,
in fact, I showed one or two
slides from those meetings.
And the answer is a big yes.
Yes, sir?
>> I don't want to
make you uncomfortable,
but the political
[inaudible] are good
for your [inaudible]
consistency.
Isn't the NASA budget that
the Trump administration is
[inaudible] Congress [inaudible]
pushing more toward [inaudible],
but sliding the budget
for [inaudible]?
>> John Bolten: Right.
So the question is in regard
to the current administration
and the focus on,
let's see, oh, yeah,
we're not supposed to talk.
But the answer is the current
administration has been very,
we've fared very well with
the NASA Earth Science budget.
And we have a lot of exciting
missions on the horizon.
So--
>> Safely said.
>> John Bolten: Thank you.
Thank you so much for coming.
>> Stephanie Marcus:
You as well.
>> John Bolten: And
I'll be around,
and I'd love to talk about it.
[ Applause ]
>> This has been a presentation
of the Library of Congress.
Visit us at loc.gov.