>> Dan Turello: Welcome. I'm Dan Turello with the Kluge Center at the Library of Congress. I'm here today with my Kluge colleague, Janna Deitz, and we are talking to Theda Skocpol and Caroline Tervo. They are the editors of a recently published book titled Upending American Politics, Polarizing Parties, Ideological Elites, and Citizen Activists from the Tea Party to the Anti-Trump Resistance. Theda Skocpol, the Victor S. Thomas Professor of Government and Sociology at Harvard University. She is also on the Scholars Council at the Library of Congress. And Caroline Tervo is a research coordinator also from Harvard in the Department of Government, where she focuses on citizen grassroots organizing, state and local party building. This event is a part of a Kluge Center ongoing series, Conversations About the Future of Democracy. Caroline, Theda, thanks for being with us today. We appreciate it. Let's start with your intentions for the volume. In the introduction, you talk about how political scientists, social scientists in general aren't always the most adept at describing what's actually going in the country. That seems to be particularly true at a local level. What did you do differently with this volume, and what did you set out to achieve? >> Theda Skocpol: I should say first of all that Upending American Politics is not the usual edited volume with this, that, or the other thing in it. It's a very tightly integrated set of windows into contemporary changes in American politics, some of them at the national level, but quite a few of them in key states like Pennsylvania and Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin. And what makes us a little bit different from all of us who contributed to this volume a little bit different from other social scientists is, yes, we take advantage of national opinions surveys or attitude surveys that give us an idea of the movement of broad categories of citizens or voters on particular issues. We also take advantage of the usual kinds of congressional studies which show how different representatives are voting on particular things. But we believe that it makes a lot more sense to look at the actual organizations and networks of citizens and of professional advocates, who play a role in politics on the right and left, especially if you want to understand what's been happening with the burst of levels of participation that have happened in this last decade or so, first when Barack Obama and the Democrats moved into Washington, DC, and then eight years later when pretty much the exact opposite, Donald Trump and conservative Republicans took charge in Washington, DC. In both of those cases, you saw the activation of advocacy groups and plunderers fighting to reverse the election results, which also saw thousands of voluntary citizens groups, local tea parties back in 2009 and after and local resistance groups in the most recent period forming to get people involved in a sustained way in politics. So, [inaudible]. >> Caroline Tervo: Only on too that I think the book has a really interesting range of perspectives because of who the authors are, so there are both a lot of young scholars, obviously like me, who are some of the recent college graduates who did really interesting and rich ethnographic research, oftentimes in the places that they grew up and where they're from. And they ask very similar and often complementary questions to more senior scholars, and all of us sort of had a history of working with each Theda at various stages in their career, and so that sort of entered discipline, not necessarily interdisciplinary but interspace work of different projects really speaks to the complementary nature of all the chapters sort of back to back. >> Dan Turello: So, one of the things I noticed in going through the chapters, going through the case studies, you know, there's a lot of key characters, local leader, local politicians, citizen activists. What doesn't show up as much, it shows up but not as prominently is social media. You know, you listen to the news and the pundits now, social media seems to be all-encompassing. It's everywhere, and yet it doesn't play quite as big of a role in this research. Can you tell us a little bit about that? Is it less important than we might think? Is it important in different ways? How does that play out? >> Theda Skocpol: Well, I'm sure we can both comment on this. It's definitely less important than many national commentators think. There's quite a lot of research that shows, for example, during the Democratic primaries in the last year, the Twitterers, the people who were commenting on Twitter, the activists, the pundits, the national observers were pretty, considerably further to the left in their evaluations. For example, they never thought Joe Biden was a serious prospect, but when you got to the full range of actual democratic voters and citizens evolved across the country, we know it was a different matter. So, that's part of it, but I would say that the internet, social media and internet enabled communication does play a role, because, for example, the tea parties that organized back in 2009 and after, they used Meetup, which was at that time a very popular website for finding other people in your local area who could get a message and come to meetings, they met once a month or so, but also comment and read postings of various kinds. And a fair amount of research that we did on the Tea Party took advantage of the fact that those sites were available to be examined and coded by researchers as well as by potential participants. And the local resistance groups almost all are on Facebook. They use face-to-face meetings, but they also do outreach through Facebook, sometimes tweeting, but you know, they're older people, so Facebook is actually a bigger deal with the older generation than it is with the youngsters. >> Caroline Tervo: I would add, too, that it's funny that you would observe that social media is not necessarily an explicit factor that we talk a lot about in the book, but it is as a research tool absolutely integral. So, all of our researchers spent a lot of time on various social media modalities, exactly as Theda described, trying to figure out who these citizens are and what they're doing, especially through changing uses of mediums, like the difference between the Meetup and the Tea Party group and what's the modern-day equivalent of that relative to Facebook and Twitter. And I think a lot of what we observed is that there's a lot to be learned on social media and studying citizen activism through social media, but I think some of our richest observations came from then complementing what we could observe on social media with interviews of people who actually knew what was going on, questionnaires of groups that spoke to both their online engagement and their offline engagement, and I think something that is discussed a lot right now is how much are activists only in an online space and how much are they doing the work and getting to know their communities. And I think what our research found is in lots of different places, lots of different types of both city areas and rural areas is that it's some combination of both, and some groups are more online than others. And if you're only doing one type of research, you're going to miss sort of the broader ecosystem and interplay of networks. >> Janna Deitz: Related to some of the conventional wisdom with regard to the practice of politics, part of the upending, I think, actually connects to another theme in additional so social media, and that's the role that money plays in politics and election outcomes. So, we know that money is a relied-upon measure of strength and enthusiasm among voters for a party's Presidential ticket. Just to use 2016 as an example, nationally, Clinton outspent Trump two to one. What does your research say about the relative importance of campaign war chests vis-a-vis your findings on local and state-level organizing. Is the conventional wisdom on money and politics misleading? >> Theda Skocpol: You know, I think it is. There is a lot of desire among observers, pundits and academics alike, to look for a single measure of political strength. And of late, I think people of kind of a leftist leaning have thought, well, it's all about what money can buy. There's no question that money matters in politics. A candidate or a movement has to have enough to get its message out, but having the most, we've known for a long time in political science, that having the most is no automatic predictor of victory in Presidential campaigns or in Senatorial [inaudible] House or state legislative campaigns. And I think we also have found in our research that how money is raised and spent and whether it strengthens organizations and connections that can build power, electoral power or just citizen advocacy power in the U.S. federal system, that's what really matter. You know, it's not one big national [inaudible] where the biggest checkbook determines everything. You have to win Presidential elections, and you certainly register power in legislatures district by district, state by state. So, understanding who has a presence, who has a voice, who has the ability to reach out and draw others in, in these key jurisdictions, it's just as important and much harder to do in research terms than trying to tally up legally registered campaign finance contributions. For example, Hillary Clinton, part of the research that went into this book comes from my visits to eight counties that went for Trump in 2016. Now, they were medium city areas in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio and smaller town areas. The Hillary Clinton campaign had supporters in all of those places. They became often the women who organized resistance groups after Trump won, but her campaign barely appeared in those places. And so, she may have had more money, but she didn't get around to places where she needed to get not a majority of the vote necessarily but a good share of it, and she ended up getting far lower shares of the vote in these moderate or conservative-leaning areas than Barack Obama had done. And that's why she lost the election to Donald Trump. Donald Trump may be a New York real estate TV personality. He got a lot of free TV coverage he didn't have to pay for, but he also made alliances with gun groups and Christian rights groups that actually have a presence and neighbor-to-neighbor ties in these vast non-metropolitan areas, and he racked up very high vote margins in those areas. >> Dan Turello: So, [inaudible] to the local organizing level, and I, you know, I wonder looking specifically on the right, on the Republican side, back in 2016 and ongoing, there have been just some very interesting [inaudible] taking shape [inaudible] has been written down a lot, and then the, you know, the more free market elite forces represented by the Koch network of groups. How are these, these tend to be somewhere unusual partners. How have they coordinated on the ground? What do those relationships look like? What does it look like at the local level? >> Caroline Tervo: Yeah. That's a great question, and I actually think it dovetails nicely to the question before about money. So, tying these back together, I think something that I think is really interesting is the type of analysis that results when you ask those two questions together. So, how were organizations organized, and how were they working different types of organizations and organizational networks. So, I'll just give you one example exactly related to your question, which is, we have two chapters studying the effects of Americans for Prosperity, which is of course a Koch network affiliated better at an advocacy organization that early on in the mid-2000s, started by a related effort of the Kochs with a few states among them North Carolina and Wisconsin, and the book sort of traces the growth of both Americans for Prosperity in Wisconsin and Americans for Prosperity in North Carolina, and it hits on relationships that that organization had to different key players. I'm from North Carolina, and here, the evangelical Christian right is a really important player, and you wouldn't necessarily think that the ultra-free market ostensively not socially conservative Americans for Prosperity group, and this sort of well-organized longstanding, excuse me, evangelical group in the state would have a lot in common, but my research found that there are really specific ways that organizations have sort of figured out how to work together, specifically around a lot of state policies here. For example, school of choice, things that will lower taxes, and sort of flatten the tax rates, and that's been related to efforts that Americans for Prosperity has made in a state like Wisconsin, where there's been sort of an easier marriage between anti-public union forces in the state. And the activities look really different. It's not necessarily, you know, an explicit press release that they're going to work together, but if you actually go on the ground and talk to people, you realize that there are some connections here and there's some relationships that are built both between these elite organizations that have sort of power players who know the legislature. They know federal candidates in the state and can push to get policies passed, and the ability to connect that we grassroots activists who will turn their people out to vote, who will call representatives, who will sort of add the organizational grassroots have to validate a lot of policies that might otherwise we know that are not necessarily majoritarian popular, but they win support through these sort of relationship-building activities organized around specific things. >> Theda Skocpol: Caroline, yeah, let me just add to that, and it's exactly right that by tracking the organizations and the networks and literally looking at what do they do, for example, some of our researchers coded events that Americans for Prosperity sponsored in key states, and that's extremely tedious work. It means going through the way back machine on the internet because believe me, Americans for Prosperity knows it's being looked at, and it doesn't really keep all that in an [inaudible] acceptable way. But things on the internet are there forever, and if you code them, you can find out that even though Americans for Prosperity always talks about lowering taxes and getting rid of environmental regulations and never says anything about gun rights or abortion directly. They co-sponsor things in certain key states with groups like that or with Tea Parties that include people who think that those are the most important issues and also think sometimes that opposing immigration is a very important issue, which is certainly not a priority. So, we sort of look at what they do, not simply what they say. And that's important in understanding both electoral and policy politics, because strange bedfellow coalitions and particularly strange bedfellow coalitions that can reach across many states or districts have a lot of clout in American politics, even if they are pushing for unpopular ideas overall. And one of the big questions in the book is how do organized constituencies on the right and the left, but especially on the right in our period bring about electoral and policy victories that do not align with what most Americans tell pollsters they want done. And with the latest example of that, by the way, which is not in our book, but our book helps you understand it, is the Amy Coney Barrett nomination to the Supreme Court. She stands for a judicial philosophy and has stated that she's an academic, has stated positions on policies that are simply not popular with the American public, but she's a perfect meeting place for Americans for Prosperity on the one hand and the Christian right and the Tea Party movement on the other hand, and so they're all behind her. And because they're all behind her, so are Republican legislators. >> Caroline Tervo: I'll also add that I think Theda has said this before, and I just want to repeat it, because I think it so astutely captures a lot about American politics that right now Americans for Prosperity and the organizations and networks we were just talking about are very pleased with Amy Coney Barrett's nomination, and that's the culmination of a very long-fought effort to implement American politics. And what our research shows, and a question that we get a lot is how did they do it. And there's no sort of magic wand. There's hard, deliberate work at local and state levels in enough key places to build up power, and that's definitely something that I hope readers take away from the book. >> Dan Turello: So, it seems, you know, one of the things that the right has been really good at has been identifying issues that are galvanizing and that really get folks working in a coalition. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about them on the left. I mean it seems like in 2016 at least, perhaps the issues were not as easily identifiable, that there was, there were not as much of a rallying point and perhaps that changed in 2018 with Obamacare and so forth, but I wonder what you see on that level? >> Theda Skocpol: So, I think it's interesting that if you look at the two big surges of political organizing and advocacy that we've seen in the United States, and I would add a third has happened more recently, which is the Black Lives Matter protest, but that is built on the broader resistance that's been in the field since 2016. If you look at the Tea Party and the resistance, and they have kind of top-down professional parts and bottom-up local citizens group parts, they happened when something that used to be rare in American politics happened, which is the election of a controversial President, an unusual President, let me just use that term, it's a euphemism, but it encompasses both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, with control of the Senate and House by the same party, at a moment when sweeping changes seemed possible in a direction that totally terrified the other end of the spectrum. So, it is important that this happened after several decades of polarization in the advocacy world and in the electorate and in Congress. But because those moments come together, what unites the various parts, once the other side gains power, is a combination of fear and anger at that, which is highly mobilizing in politics. And, you know, I think that there's a tendency to think politics is about issues and issue briefs. Actually not. It's much more about who we are and who they are and what are our values and our hopes for the country might be, particularly Presidential-level politics. And so, that's a commonality between both of these upsurges that have happened. Now, when you get down to issues, of course Democrats and liberals being what they are, they're more concerned about issues, and in the 2016 Presidential campaign, the fact that there was no incumbent that was seeking reelection, it wasn't Obama, it was Hillary Clinton, really helped Democrats to focus more on what they disagreed about, and particularly the disagreements between the Bernie wing and Hillary Clinton. But that really modulated fast after Trump was elected, and I think from November 9, 2016, until now you've seen a coming together despite policy disagreements of the two, the kind of more progressive parts of the Democratic coalition, which is about 40%, and the more mainstream liberal to moderate parts, which is about 60%. The Tea Party is a different matter. Tea Partiers represent two-thirds of the Republican party, and the Tea Party's effect on the Republicans after 2009 was to push them toward never compromising with Democrats and opposing every that Barack Obama and the Democrats did, and it pushed the Republican party further toward the far right, particularly on ethnonationalist as well as free market issues. On the other hand, I think Democrats have not been pushed further to the left. They've simply been energized across the board and able to work together much more effectively this time behind the Biden candidacy. We don't see the same kind of splits that we saw around Hillary Clinton. Now, I do think gender has something to do with that. I think it was hard for a woman, particularly against Donald Trump, but the fact of the matter is that fear of the other side is a profoundly galvanizing force in these movements, and to say that Democrats have been scared out of their wits since November 9, 2016, would be an underestimate of the situation. >> Dan Turello: So, we had lost Janna there for a minute. I'm glad you're back. I think you had a question about women and demographics, and so that might be a great segue to that. >> Janna Deitz: Thank you, Dan. Yes, I had a couple of questions with regard to some of those demographics, such as specifically women's roles, both in this work, and Theda, in your work on tea parties as well. I noticed there was a particular role that women leaders played in terms of grassroots activism across the political spectrum. Also, if I could get your feedback, too, on what you see as the importance of youth activism, and perhaps bridging some gaps between rural and urban differences that we see. >> Theda Skocpol: Okay. I mean there's lots to talk about here. The fact of the matter is that if you get down to the level of local citizens groups that volunteer their time, which was true for local Tea Parties as well as for the resistance, women had a big role to play. Surprise. Who is it that actually does the work of organizing a local group. In the case of the Tea Party, often raising funds through bake sales. I attended Tea Party meetings. I'm probably one of the few people in the United States who's attended both Tea Party meetings and resistance group meetings, and they have a very similar let's pitch in and get it done flavor that women are often, as local leader, are often part of. Now, the overall demographics of the Tea Party, just like the overall demographics of [inaudible] in the United States are 50 to 60% men. But the way I like to put it is that men have been the couch potatoes or the casual voters of the conservative republicanism whereas women are often, not always, but often among the active volunteer leaders. When you get to the resistance that emerged at the grassroots after the Trump election, you know, the national media, if you turn on MSNBC, or if you look at the national media, you're going to see a constant touting of a very real force in the [inaudible] resistance, which is young people and people of color. No question, they matter, and that they have often been, they've created new organizations, new networks, new social media campaigns. They have been important, especially last summer in the Black Lives Matter marches, and young people, I think, were anxious to get out of the house anyway, and frankly, the appeal of racial justice now cuts across racial lines among young people in the United States to an extraordinary degree. Most marches in the resistance before that were heavily older women, and the local organizations that we've studied, up to 3000 of them spread all across the United States, in cities, suburbs, rural towns, you name it, they're everywhere. They are 75 to 90% led by college-educated, often post-graduate educated women. And we're not talking about wealthy people in a lot of places. We're talking about the town librarian or a worker in the local public health department or somebody who works for the local hospital or teachers. Teachers, teachers, teachers, teachers everywhere. So, these are the people who have organized to revitalize the Democratic party, and they are the ones that fueled the blue wave in 2018, and they are the ones that are doing a lot of the personal contacting that is going to ensure, I suspect, a pretty large victory for Democrats in three weeks. They are not visible, and often they are not celebrated. But even when young people organize, and this is going to be my last point, there's a chapter in the book looking at the [inaudible] movement. And it's the only chapter that's really about an issue movement rather than more electoral politics, and it found what I also found when I visited various communities, which is that young people often organized in high schools, you know, the march for our lives type events, but it was often their mothers and grandmothers behind the scenes who were providing a lot of the support. And in the big marches, those mothers and grandmothers were also there. So, and in the black community, it's often older black women organized through churches and church networks who give their children and grandchildren a kick in the butt to get off the couch and go vote. So, I think the role of women, most movements, but particularly in this wave since 2016 cannot be stressed enough. >> Dan Turello: So, I think we have time for one final round of questions. I'm going to go with a question that's an obvious one, but it's one that everybody is talking about, and I think it's so important. And it has to do with centrism. The trends over the last years have all seemed to be pointing towards greater polarization in the country. The two parties seem to be gravitating further away from each other, and yet, there's also other dynamics at play. Within the Democratic party, the platform that has prevailed in 2016 and now in 2020 has been more of a centric one. What do you see as the trends. What do you see, Theda, doesn't necessarily agree with that, so curious to hear your take on this. What do you see as the trends moving forward? Are we doomed to further polarization, or is that centrism still possible and compromise still possible? And Janna, I know, I think has a question along those lines as well. >> Theda Skocpol: Well, let me be quick so that Caroline can chime in too. I mean, I think that I would say the Democrats have ooched left. That word, ooch, is an academic word, and -- Joe Biden is a reassuringly old-fashioned character and therefore attracts a fair amount of moderate support, and the anti-Trump coalition has always included Republicans and independents who don't like what they see. So, that's true, but I mean, if Biden is elected, you know, his healthcare policy is actually more progressive than anything Democrats have put forward in a long time. And he has a green jobs, not a Green New Deal, but a green jobs investment policy that's pretty progressive. So, part of the reason that you've seen this coming together, of the more leftist and more moderate Democrats is that there are policy ways to work out a way forward that makes everybody at least somewhat happy. But that's the major point, you know. These two wave or organizing, particularly at the grassroots level, the Tea Party, I think it's fair to say, has fed extremism. It's added in an element of ethnonationalist extremism and an anger and unwillingness to compromise to politics. Added that on top of the kind of free market forces that had already triumphed in the Republican party before 2009. The impact of the resistance overall, if you consider its grassroots parts spread across the country in more swing states as well as liberal states, in communities of all types, has been to encourage a broad-tent Democratic party, and Democrats in general are less fierce in their opposition to compromise than conservative Republicans are. So, I am actually mildly hopeful that we might see a resurgence of people being willing to talk with one another in the near future, but there's no question that there are clashing visions and fears at work. >> Caroline Tervo: I'll just add that I think one really interesting point of agreement among the various progressive Democratic coalitions is voting rights. I think that that will be, voting rights and changes to make the democratic process easier and more accessible will be an extremely important discussion for 2021, and it's a point where Theda's observation about fear of the other side and anger being really powerful motivators could not be like more fundamentally different on the two sides. So, a lot of grassroots activists in the resistance networks are trying to educate people about how to vote, trying to register new voters, trying to make it easier to vote, coming out against voter ID laws, and a lot of people on the Tea Party side are afraid of voter fraud and afraid of people showing up at the polls, and you know, there are both elites and grassroots people talking about rigged elections or rigged processes. And I think we're cueing ourselves up for an election where we're going to be testing a lot of the systems that we have in place, and then, I think, once we get to the other side of that, there's broad agreement on the Democratic side sort of no matter what your stripe is, that voting is a useful thing, and you see Joe Biden really and Kamala Harris really cuing people that that's what they want you to do this election. I think that would be really fundamentally opposed by sort of Republican Conservative Tea Party types. But I do think a point of agreement there are reforms to the redistricting process, which we're also going to kind of run headway into after the Census is completed. A lot of Tea Partiers don't like that their community is splintered into separate congressional districts. Sometimes that helps them, and they wind up with a congressman with which they agree or a congress person with which they agree, but sometimes it doesn't. And the extent to which those sort of things that are fundamental to being engaged in politics and being civically engaged are on the table. I think you're going to find both points of strong agreement and points of strong disagreement at different [inaudible]. >> Dan Turello: Janna, do you want to follow up on that? >> Janna Deitz: I just wanted to say that one of the things that I really enjoyed about this work is the focus not just on the federal government system but also on the federated practice of politics, and I'm just curious to kind of bring this back around. In terms of the title of the book, Upending American Politics, what do you see as longer-term effects of this all politics is local in terms of the organizing that you've seen at the state and local level. What do you think might be the long-term impact of this for American politics at large. >> Theda Skocpol: Well, it would be great if citizens across the board stay more engaged and give new life to local Republican and Democratic parties everywhere. We are studying some of that now, and we do see especially on the Democratic side, but I saw it earlier with Vanessa Williamson among the Tea Parties that, you know, more [inaudible] local party organizations and state organizations where nobody paid any attention, and a few insiders decided everything. Those have been changed as you've gotten these kind of extra-party but party related groups more engaged not just in Washington, DC, where there are a zillion of them, but at the local level among citizens for whom it's not their full-time job. So, we're seeing many of the resistors running for party offices in their local political party organizations. And sometimes they get there, and they think about things very differently than the old-time regulars, but that's creating a new set of pathways and a new energy. Now, I do think that both sides may agree on some de-gerrymandering reforms. One of the things that both local Tea Partiers and local resistors had to do was to figure out who in the world represents us, and it's very frustrating, if you're trying to organize a local citizens' group and your jurisdiction is divided up into 10 pieces. So, that's an area where there might be some agreement. I don't think there'd be a lot of agreement on expanding the vote and the electorate, but there will be on that. And so, that could be a good thing. Now, you know, this is nothing new. I want to stress that I don't think, I think we're in an era where national symbolism connects to local passions much more powerfully than it has in some other eras, partly because of the media system and the way it's polarized. But I don't think it's new to say that local districts and state representatives matter in American national politics. That's always been true. And when you get a geographic sorting out of the kind that we have now, pitting, you know, urban and inner suburb [inaudible] areas against the rest, that can lead to real amoral polarization, not just electoral polarization. And it happened in the Civil War in the 19th Century, and it's happening in new forms now, and somebody in American politics at the state and national level is going to have to figure out ways to devise arguments and policies that speak to the real-life concerns of people in very different community and economic situations, and that would be nice if that happened. I'm not sure it's going to be an automatic result of all of this new mobilization, but it could be. >> Dan Turello: Caroline, Theda, thanks for being with us today. We really appreciate your taking the time. Look forward to a time, perhaps, when you can actually be at the Library in person and [inaudible]. >> Caroline Tervo: Yes. >> Theda Skocpol: Wouldn't that be nice? Yeah. I think we're all getting zoomed out here, but yeah. Thank you. >> Caroline Tervo: Thank you so much for having us.