[ Music ] >> Welcome to the Library of Congress' National Book Festival. My name is Moira Shourie and I'm the executive producer of Zocalo Public Square. The theme of this year's festival is American ingenuity. And the authors we are speaking with today have used ingenious ways of examining societies in crisis and the journey of democracy. James Robinson is a political scientist and an economist and the director of the Pearson institute at the University of Chicago. His new book co-authored with Daron Acemoglu is "The Narrow Corridor, States, Societies, and The Fate of Liberty." Jared Diamond is professor of geography at UCLA, a Pulitzer Prize winner has been awarded the National Science Metal. His latest book is titled "Upheaval, Turning Points for Nations in Crisis." Today's conversation is called how liberty flourishes. Speaking of American ingenuity, "Upheaval and The Fate of Liberty" we are at crossroads of all these factors right now. I am a new American citizen; I was sworn in in 2017. I left one democratic framework, the largest democracy in the world, India, and inserted myself into the most powerful democracy in the United States of America. Jared, your book examines moments of upheaval in democracies. How do you define a national crisis? >> I define a national crisis by analogy with a personal crisis, the crises that all of us experience with the breakdown of relationships, and deaths of loved ones. Personal crisis is a situation where we realize that the way we've been functioning no longer works. And by analogy a national crisis is a situation, which a nation realizes that a basic way that it's been functioning no longer works. An example being Finland had a certain foreign policy toward the Soviet Union. And on November 30, 1939, Finland was invaded by the Soviet Union, making clear that Finland's previous policy was not working. That was a crises that exploded. There were also national crises that unfold more gradually such as the breakdown of Australia's white Australia's policy. >> And James, moving to your book, I'd like to set up, you know the framework of our discussion by asking you to define, what is the narrow corridor and how do societies enter this corridor, and how are they washed ashore or exit? And how do they remain inside? So, what is the narrow corridor that you're talking about? >> Well, the book is really about sort of trying to explain law run dynamics of the political and economic change in society. And it hinges around sort of the balance of power between the states and society. So, you know you could think of sort of three archetypes of a situation where the state dominates society. You know, you could think of China. Or you could think of society dominates the states. That might be a place like Yemen. And in the middle, there's a balance between state and society. And that's where this corridor is. So, we emphasize a lot this balance between states and society, where you don't just stay there. You know, when do we emphasis this narrow corridor where there's a balance. Because that creates a very specific type of dynamics. And it's those dynamics that create liberty. And that's the main argument in the book. How do you get into the narrow corridor? Well, that's a very deeply historical thing, you know. It can be engineered. You know, you can think of the United States in the late 18th century of a moment where the founding fathers tried to kind of engineer a particular balance between state and society. But even that came in the context of a history that was say, distinct from Latin America. So, the emphasis in the book very much on the law run dynamics. You know, think about my Chinese example, or think of the example I give of Yemen; you know we know quite a lot about Yemen going back a thousand years. So, these are very persistent outcomes. So, that's the sort of consoling fact, you know, I think historical fact when we're sort of concerned about falling out of the corridor today. You know, how do you get into it? You have to create this balance. And I think there's many different ways that's happened, historically. How do you get out of it? Well, you get unbalanced. You know the state takes over, or society takes over. >> Right, and there are maybe places in the world that we thought were very safely in the corridor, but now are at risk of falling out of it. And one big reason is of course, the global pandemic and COVID-19. And James, is COVID-19 a stress test for liberty and democracy. And how are various governments, authoritarians and democracies, how are they responding to this virus? >> Well, I think if you think about the United States, there was already a stress test going on. You know, there's been huge upsurge of challenges balanced between states and society. I think actually Professor Diamond's book is very penetrating on this, where he turns his gaze on the challenges to US institutions and you know, using my own terminology, I say that's precisely you know, undermining the balance of states in society. People are worried that technology is making the government too strong, too powerful. There's enormous distrust and cynicism about political institutions. You know, we're at an all-time low in trust in state institutions in the United States. So, there was already, you know the balance was already tottering and now we've been hit by this crisis, which you know seems to have exacerbated many of those conflicts. It's exacerbated inequality, it's exacerbated this equilibrium between you know what we need the state to do, and what people will trust the state to do. You know, I think other parts of the world obviously are doing much better. Places where I'd say the society dominates the state, like Yemen, you know, they have very little capacity to kind of cope with this. They have very poor public health systems; you know they have massive under provision of public goods. That's going to be a humanitarian crisis. Places like China, you know they have this despotic power to kind of lock everybody down and control everybody. But you know, that comes at a price in many other dimensions as we know. But in some sense the places which are doing best, places like South Korea, places like Taiwan, places like New Zealand are you know, places where they're in the corridor. There's immense trust in the institutions, and there's a healthy balance. I think the problem in the United States has been the forces of globalization, and inequality, and political polarization of the sort that Professor Diamond talks about in his book, have sort of made it very difficult to get to that solution that say, South Korea and Taiwan has achieved. >> And wouldn't you say that you know this virus seems to be re-entering our societies in different ways. And just when Taiwan, and South Korea, and Japan seem to have had it under control, maybe the less than ideal examples set by maybe some people in other countries who just wanted to travel and have their summertime fun is causing a resurgent. So, there are some bad habits that are leaking out into societies that were very safely in that corridor in responding to COVID-19 in a way that you would expect governments to function that are in that corridor, wouldn't you say, James. >> Yeah, it's a global problem. I mean yes, it's a global problem. New Zealand can cause the problem in New Zealand, but they can't solve the problem in the rest of the world. And we were all connected, and I think you know that's both a challenge, but it's also a source of optimism, you know. Because so many of the problems we face are global. Like climate change and global warming. We need global institutions dealing with that. So, I would say one of the really optimistic ways of thinking about this is it will just make it so evident how we need more global cooperation in institutions to deal with the challenges that the planet faces. >> And Jared, I'd like to bring you in here, because you know we've been talking a little bit about the concept of a natural experiment. And what do you see as a natural experiment, how do you think about it? And how are institutions of democracy fairing when we're all undergoing this simultaneous natural experiment? >> I'd like to say two things about that, Moira. One is that my background is not as a geographer, or a historian, but I was trained as a physiologist, specifically as a gallbladder physiologist, as a specialist for that small organ nestled against the liver. And for 40 years I taught medical students. Well, as a gallbladder physiologist the way that I learned about how the world functions was not the way Jim does now, and I do by comparing different countries. But I manipulated gallbladders. I dipped them in solutions with potassium, or without potassium. Those are manipulated experiments. And they're very effective ways of reaching unequivocal conclusions. Because you know what the change was. But when I switched over to geography, I could no longer manipulate countries. I could get unequivocal answers to the state of democracy in United States, if I were to draw a line down the Mississippi River and then every state east of the line I commanded would have a republican government, every state west of the line would have a democratic government. And then the tier of states along, bordering Canada would have dictatorships. But we can't do that. Instead Jim and I have to deal with what's thrown at us. But there's a lot of variation thrown at us. And an example, following up on Jim's point about the different ways that countries have dealt well with COVID, as Jim pointed out, some of the countries that have dealt well include countries like New Zealand, and South Korea democracy. But a country that has done extremely well is Vietnam, which is not a democracy at all. I believe that Vietnam has had 0 deaths. Why has Vietnam dealt well? Well, there are reasons. Vietnam got shocked by the predecessor of COVID, namely the 2002, SARS epidemic, which again broke out in wild animal markets just as did COVID. And lots of people got killed in Vietnam. So, in Vietnam when they heard that there was another disease emerging from the wild animal markets in China, it was an instant reaction in Vietnam, with its strong government, it's not the case, if you could contract COVID, you were quarantined in your house. Instead you are taken out of your house, you're put into another facility. And your companions in your house are then put on lock down, and there's tracing. Well, Vietnam has a strong government, it's very good at tracing. The result is that in this very undemocratic way, Vietnam has arrived at an effective solution. This then, illustrates, COVID is a vicious natural experiment. It's a perturbation like me dipping my gallbladders in potassium solutions. Lots of gallbladders got dipped in potassium, but in this case lots of countries got exposed to COVID. And Brazil has reacted one way, withing the United States, Florida has reacted one way, and Massachusetts another way. So, we have a massive natural experiment. >> And so much of the reaction and the response also has to do with the compliance of citizens and you know, what has that revealed about how citizens respond to instruments of governments, and maintaining some semblance of national health? What has that revealed to you? Jared? >> A great natural experiment again, and I see the different ways that it plays out from the different countries in which I've lived. I was living in Germany on the day that the wall was erected. Germany is the foreign country with which perhaps I'm most closely involved. Germans are disciplined. When the government tells them to do something, and nowadays they have a democratic government. By and large people do it. In the United States, the United States has this history of individualism of not doing what the government wants us to do. And so, here in California, while my State of California was the state whose governor reacted perhaps first proactively, to the crisis. Nevertheless, lots of Californians do not want to be told by the government what to do. And so there were lots of Californians who were out on the beaches now infecting us further with COVID. So, the natural experiment illustrates itself within the United States. >> And James, I'd like to ask you, you know, we've been talking about societies in this narrow corridor. Do you think COVID is the crisis? Or do you think COVID is revealing deeper problems that existed before, problems of inequality that have been brought to the forefront by COVID? And how do you think societies are reacting? >> Yeah, I mean I think it's doing both. I think it's exacerbating problems of inequality, which will always be very challenging. You know, somebody like me or Professor Diamond, you know, we can sit at home, we can teach our classes on Zoom, you know, we're not unemployed. We can isolate ourselves from society. You know this is well-educated people can do that. Poor people, they have to go to work, they can't deal with their children, you know because the schools are closed. You know, they face unemployment risk. You know, so it's exacerbated the nature of inequality. But I also think that it's revealed you know it's a type of sort of crisis that we haven't really dealt with before. And you know some types of behavior. So, for example the type of behavior that Professor Diamond was talking about, that people in the United States are very kind of individualistic, they're against the government, they're skeptical of government authority. You see that all the time. You know, hear civil disobedience, people don't want to cooperate with the Governor of Illinois proposing to shut this and shut that. And so, I think the nature of, the world changes, you know the world changes, society changes, it evolves. New shocks, new crises, new challenges come, and we have to adapt, humans have to adapt. And I think the story of the corridor is not, you know you get into the corridor and you stay the same. As I was saying there's lots of dynamics. You know if I thought about the US society, or society of western Europe, it has these characteristics. But there's a lot of dynamism in people's beliefs and institutions, and I think this shows that you know, maybe we have to change. We have to change the way we act; we have to change the way we relate to each other. We have to be less individualistic and worry more about the consequences of our behavior for other people. You know, and maybe that will spill over into other domains. So, I think both of those things, both, it makes these problems worse but also shows that we have, there are new problems we didn't understand before, we have to adapt to those, and we have to change the way we operate. I think the big picture, you know I study Latin America a lot for example. And you know if I thought about the evolution of the United States over the last 200 years compared to Latin American countries, which will became independent more or less at the same time, I'd say the way that things were organized in the United States has been quite a success relatively. But success doesn't last, you know the world changes and we have to adapt. >> Right, you have to keep tending to that garden. You know, we've been, there are all these threats that face humanity, including climate change, the threat of nuclear war, but this crisis, the COVID-19 global crisis has also revealed a new threat that I don't think many countries had an eye on and that is the inequality of education access. And even within just the United States, we are seeing this play out in such a micro level. In the news, we hear that you know parents are organizing into education pods and hiring teachers where school districts are remaining closed. But that really is going to lead to a huge inequality of education access. And that's the generation we're hoping is going to solve all these problems that we're handing them. So, how do you as social scientists and people who write about how nations address crises and how they solve problems? Jared, do see any silver lining to the education inequality as it's revealing itself today and how COVID might be a way to fix that in a very deep systemic way? >> Yes, I do see a silver lining and I feel like a referee at a football match, or a soccer match, which is fast moving, and the referee throws down flags, and then there's a pause and the referee picks up the flags. All right, there have been several flags thrown down. One that you just threw down about inequality and three or four thrown down by Jim, which illustrate why over the last 15 years, Jim has been the colleague who's had the greatest influence on me because he has wonderful insights and wonderful ways of saying things. Some of the things that Jim pointed out, this is a global problem. That's the essence of it. It's the type of crisis we haven't dealt with before. That's the essence of it. We have to change, that's the essence of it. So, what is new? Yes, this is a global problem. But as you point out, we've had other global problems. We have the problem of climate change, of unsustainable resource use, the global problem of inequality, the global problem of the risk of nuclear war. But none of these global problems, interestingly, have galvanized us the way that COVID has galvanized us. Why? The reason is that COVID kills you quickly within a few days. And if you die of COVID, there's no doubt that you died of COVID. All right, in the worst-case scenario 76 million people may die of COVID. Far more people risk dying of climate change and unsustainable resource use. But when you die of climate change, it's not within two days. And you don't say my mother died of climate change, you say my mother died in a tsunami, or of starvation, or of the other consequences of climate change. So, climate change has not galvanized us. It hasn't caught our attention. Instead COVID, this relatively minor problem compared to climate change has galvanized us and caught our attention. And therefore, I see a silver lining. I'm cautiously optimistic. If we succeed in solving COVID, because COVID is a global problem. As you say, COVID has to be solved by global action. If New Zealand solves its own COVID problem, New Zealand will just get reinfected by other countries. The whole world has to solve its COVID problem. So, for the first time we have a global problem that captures our attention. Maybe it will get the world to recognize that global problems require global solutions. That having solved COVID in the next year or two, then we'll go on to solve really important problems of climate change, inequality, and unsustainable resource use. That's why I'm cautiously optimistic. >> And what I'm seeing playing out in my children's generation, and this is something that UCLA has brought to the forefront, Jared, your home institution, the grand challenge. And one of the grand challenges of the university is to address depression, which I believe is at a pandemic level amongst young people and teenagers on a global scale. Because they're overwhelmingly terrified about climate change. They feel that there's no solution, that we're not giving them the tools to fix it. That we've hand strung them. And so, this is a generation that we're expecting to solve our problems. And James, as you've illustrated earlier, you talked about how it does come down to the individual. And societies change and evolve. They don't just enter this corridor and sit there counting their blessings, they have to keep evolving. And there's this young generation that already is confronting depression and anxiety. And now they have to be in self-isolation and locked away from their peers. How do you think this generation moves through? Do you think this generation is a generation that will keep most societies in the corridor, or what's your take on this? >> Yeah, I mean I think you know with respect to the theme of education; I think there's you know, there's been mounting evidence about you know many dysfunctional aspects of the education system in the United States. The way you know the local financing of public schools works. The enormous consequences for people's life chances and welfare that living you know in particular neighborhoods, marginalized, under resourced neighborhoods causes. And you know I am optimistic at least you know talking about the United States. I am optimistic that you can solve that problem. I think some problems in the United States are very hard to solve. Just because of the whole kind of ideology, the way people think about the world. The sort of world view that people have in the US. But I think that is a problem that's solvable. Because it runs counter to the whole narrative of being American, this sort of land of opportunities, and upward social mobility, and kind of equality of opportunity. And we know that this is fundamentally bind by many of the inequities we see in education and the distribution of resources. So, I think you can develop a narrative which can change things, you know if you look at the stagnation of social mobility and median average wages over the last 30 years, there's mounting evidence on this. And I think that is something that is politically feasible. But many things in the United States are not politically feasible I think given the way people think about their societies. And you know unfortunately we have a government that's very much at the moment, the federal government that's very much you know in the mold of a kind of simplistic idea of what it is to be American. Small government, low taxes, no regulation. And that's for the worst possible combination for such a challenge, you know when we need to change, and we need to adapt. But you know Herbert Hoover was the president when the Great Depression hit in the United States, and you know it took time to adapt, and it took time for Roosevelt to come and it took time for people to rethink what the options were and come up with politically feasible alternatives. So, you know, just thinking about education that does seem to be something to me that one could make a lot of progress on. >> So, I'd actually like to dig a little deeper on that point. You know in "The Narrow Corridor," you describe India as a society that's most tied down by this concept, the cage of norms. And I was born and raised in that cage. My mother was sterilized after I was born, the last three girls. And now I'm raising four brown sons in America. And America has its own unique, different cage of norms. And I want to know which society's journey and which society that you've examined is the best learning for where we find ourselves in America right now? >> Oh, gosh. I mean I think you know different societies have different histories and they have different problems. You know if you went back 200 years, Colombia or Peru, or you know, they face similar types of problems that the United States face. And they were much less successful at solving those problems, or coming up with a set of institutions, or a social contract that would deal with those problems. You know, if I thought about India, I mean, I'm not a scholar of India, but what we emphasize in the book is that what's so fascinating about India is it has this enormously deep history of democracy. If you go back to the days of Buddha, you know there was participation, there was accountability. There was an enormous history of kind of citizen and popular participation in governance, which is a crucial part of getting into the corridor. But why India has found that so difficult to get into the corridor is because it's the more sociological aspects. That's what you're talking about with this cage of norms. But you know the caste system, the caste system you know is a sort of fundamental impediment of creating an inclusive society, or moving into the norm, in this corridor where you get this synergy between the states and society. So, I think, you know, we talk about this in many other context in the book, you know in sub-Sahara in Africa. Yeah, in the United States you have the same thing too. You have the norm that you know people who are you know poor, or people who are unemployed, you know, they're really to blame for their predicament. You know there's this sort of norm that you know if you work hard, you'll be successful and so failure is due to your own personal inadequacies. We know, actually that's not true, you know, in terms of economic research, but it's very much the ideology in the United States. >> And so, maybe what gets us through is in fact what the theme of the Book Festival is, which is American ingenuity. How do you think COVID-19 and how do you think our response to it can make democracy stronger, in the united states, but also in parts of the world where people are really fighting for democracy? Do you think COVID-19 has an opportunity, has opened the door to strengthen democracy? >> It has an opportunity to make things better. And it has an opportunity to make things worse. We see the tendencies in both directions now. The essence of COVID is that it's a global problem, as I mentioned, for the first time in human history, we recognize that it's a global problem that demands a global solution. Every country has to solve its COVID problem. Because if COVID remains in Zaire and is eliminated everywhere else, we the world will get reinfected. So, in the worst case there's already competition. Face masks got sent to Europe and there was a scramble between France, and Russia, and Israel, and Sweden to buy those face masks. There is concern now that with the efforts to develop a vaccine, in China, and the United States, and Britain, whichever country develops the vaccine first, they hoard the vaccine for itself. So, the worst-case scenario would be increased competition and a bad future for the world. The best-case scenario is that people recognize the this is a global problem, requiring a global solution. COVID is a powerful teacher. When a few countries have succeeded in doing with COVID within their own borders, they've gotten reinfected. South Korea, Australia, New Zealand has gotten reinfected. And so, COVID is teaching us that this is a global problem requiring a global solution. You asked about whether there's a country that's a model, and as Jim pointed out, every country is different and some countries are really different, so you might think that there's no model. But there are some human universals. One human universal is the Boy Scout motto 'be prepared.' This is a motto that's vivid for me because working in New Guinea, in the jungles of New Guinea for the last 50 years, I've had to learn to be prepared for anything going wrong. Anything might go wrong, and I've got to be prepared for it. And I've carried that attitude towards my life in the United States, I drive my friends crazy. But there's a country that has learned that lesson, that's the country of Finland. Finland because of its experience with World War II, when its pass to the outside got cutoff, the Fins realized we have to be prepared for anything. And so, I have a friend in Finland who's on the Finnish government commission that meets every month, thinks of everything that could go wrong and prepares for it. One month, the month that I last saw my Finnish friend, they were thinking what would happen if Finland's electrical net got knocked out. Another month, they think of what happens if the financial net got knocked out. So, Finland is prepared for everything. Not surprisingly, because they had stockpiled grain, and they had stockpiled fuel, and they stockpiled chemicals, of course, the stockpiled face masks. Finland therefore was prepared for COVID, just like Finland is prepared for everything. So, in short, my hopes for the world would be a proactive attitude in the world, in general, that we have to be prepared for things going wrong. And then my best hope is that the world will realize that we have to join together in solving world problems. Because if we don't join together, we're all doomed. >> Thank you, Jared, that was actually very insightful to hear about Finland. And you know, the topic of today's discussion as I started out is actually entitled how liberty flourishes. And James, I'd like to end with you. Can liberty flourish again? Here we are all you know feeling like we're prisoners in our own vortexes, and that if we meet a friend, or you know take our dog for a walk, we're going to be infecting people. And that really has been crushing our personal sense of liberty. So can liberty flourish again, and what do you think are some of the positives that can come out of this? >> Yeah, I think it can. I mean I think when the crisis, when the pandemic started, when it became evident how serious this was, I think there was a sort of rapid embrace of very draconian type models. You know, with the Chinese. Oh, China can just lock everything down, and that's exactly what the epidemiologists think is a good idea. And you know we can't do that. It's too chaotic. And so then there's a sort of demand, kind of this state, this controlling state. And that seemed like a terrible threat to democracy to me. But I think as the situation has evolved, we've actually seen some of these examples that we've been talking about. You know, South Korea has managed to be just as effective with far fewer economic consequences by the way. You know, South Korea hasn't had the kind of lock down that they imposed in China. And it hasn't had nearly such bad economic consequences. Of course there's been economic consequences, you know its exports have gone down and its markets contract, and but so I think-- >> Global contraction as well, I mean you know. >> Of course, of course, yes you can't isolate yourself from that. Just as Professor Diamond was saying that we can't isolate ourselves from this. So, I think it's not the Chinese model doesn't look so great, the very draconian model doesn't look so great. So, I'm less worried about that now. I'm just very concerned about; you know so I think yes liberty can flourish. Liberty can flourish. And we have to use this as an opportunity to see, you know to reflect on the problems of our society. You know we haven't talked about the enormous problems of public health care you know in this country. The fact that millions of people don't have health insurance. You know this is an enormous crisis. And you know if somebody is sick, I can't isolate myself from that. And so that's also, maybe it will help us reflect on the absence of basic public goods you know that we all need in this society, insurance for poor people. And so that's something else that I think could come out of this. Because what liberty can you have if you don't have health or access to healthcare. But some basic public goods that we need. And I think this also can help us focus on those. >> Right, and so I'd like to actually bring out discussion to a close on that hopeful note. That we do have countries and forms of government that are responding well to the needs of its citizens. And we've revealed that inequalities in the world, places that face inequality are facing much greater impact, the negative impact of COVID-19, but these are actually revealing great opportunities for us to strengthen our sense of democracy and liberty both on a national as well as on a personal level. I'd like to thank James Robinson and Jared Diamond for joining us today. This has been a really enlightening conversation. And I've read both of your books. They're fascinating. And to read them back-to-back actually is, you know that's the great sequence. And I actually read Jared's first and followed it up with James' and I could do it again the other way around and learn new and different things. So, thank you for dedicating so much of your time for this discussion today. And thank you for joining us at the National Book Festival. >> Thank you, all of you for joining us virtually. I would like to have been with you in person, but this is the next best, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you very much for joining us and I look forward to attending the National Book Festival in person in the future. [ Music ]